Well, it is official.   Charles Copeland has opted to pass on a run at Congress.  This decision made late yesterday afternoon, and for many of the reasons chronicled here for weeks, now gives clarity – at least a lil more – to a crowded field long being held hostage at the enigmatic presence of two eminent, popular and well funded political personalities; Charles Copeland and Anthony Wedo.

While we fully expect an affirmative announcement from the Wedo camp stat, this proclamation by Charlie has come as a surprise – at least to some – to those who know Charlie or where hopeful that Mike Castles own man would take the baton and Challenge John Carney in November.  Even our own Madam LeRue stood in stoic disbelief as she had called for a mammoth battle between He and Wedo.  “This obviously comes as a surprise to me”, said the dismayed but unflappable clairvoyant.  “And while disappointed, I wish Charles well in his future endeavors. I will tell you all though, that he shall return to lead this state”.

We too, wish Mr. Charles L. Copeland well and look with great anticipation to his run at the Governorship.  His persona and fight will be missed in this primary.

A feature on Charlie and this decision will ensue.  But in the meantime we give Charlie his space and our respect.

The state of Delaware is bracing for what will be another monster snowfall.  DC will be even more intense.  There will be nowhere to hide.

To be certain there will be white-out conditions with screaming and icy winds; the chill will be arctic and the bones will rattle.  But while these conditions are fierce by Mother Nature’s standards they can’t hold a shovel to the frigid rath that will beset those who by artful intent look to skirt and discredit Madam LeRue’s prophecies.

Madam had foreseen an announcement by one Charles Copeland to climb into the race for the House this mid-week.  Obviously that has not as of yet materialized and word on the street is that nothing would provide “Chucky” more pleasure than to “stick it” to our illustrious and esteemed soothsayer.  This of course has really pissed her off and it is all we can do to wrap a harness around the girl.

So we carefully explained the nature of Delaware politics and how it is well within the norm to stick it to folks… friends and adversaries alike.  It was also pointed out that Charles is not beyond such shenanigans and that the Madam can take great solace in the fact that her words have penetrated the ears and incurred the ire of those she challenges.  This is to be expected.  No one – especially thin skinned politicos – favour someone telling them what they will or will not do (they save that for the voters)  Makes ‘em look predictable.  Lawdy Lawdy, we can’t have one of the favourite Sheppard’s appearing so calculable… now can we?

We know of the meetings and the hours torching the AT&T lines that have occurred between Charles the chosen one and the King.  Yes, even though it is the dead of winter we have flies on the wall as well.  There exists a few scenarios by which he hops in and they all revolve around the rebel… Tony Wedo.  There has also been much talk as to some of the backlash – some created here, thank you – that has begun to seep in the GOP’s well fortified bunker.  Folks, aka the voters, it appears, are generally tepid (being kind) to the prospect of having their Bride – and a close relative to His Majesties – chosen for them.  Those below the canal are not as magnanimous.  There is downright revolt in the air as Copeland would no more be a welcomed dinner guest in Milford than Chris Coons toting a basket of taxes… with a fine Pinot, of course.  Even if he did tip the 45%

That Charlie is looking for ways to avoid hopping in – ergo keeping His Dover deed secure-  is the worst kept secret in Delaware.  To wit:  in his most recent  WDEL interview,  Chuck gave us all a litany of counter incentives that now occupy his world, and in no small part, his candidacy.  Ranging from Charter School issues and his loyalty for those employed there (genuine) to the newly minted coin of a jurist he is married to (nothing disingenuous here either, unless you’ve never been married), he articulates  in thinly veiled floridity  that there exists more than a few reasons to look for a back door.  Well, he has laid enough pipe here that he could crawl through it to and through the back door.

The Madam, as displeased at the slight she is, will sit, ponder and bide her time.  “Every dog has it’s day” is all she was heard to utter.  Doesn’t take a tea leave to decipher that one, folks.

So we wait, and as the blinding snow descends upon us we are left ourselves to ponder two questions Mr. Copeland:  Will you use your shovel for something other than snow this weekend?…  And… are you in or are you out?

Final note:  Don’t think we aint watching you, Mr. Wedo.  While you haven’t laid any pipe yourself, it has been rumored  you were seen at the Home Depot buying enough split rail fence to encase the whole north 40.   Waddya plannin’ on doin’ with that, bro?   Lots of folks waitin in the desert for you as well and they’s mighty thirsty.

So we ask you too… Are you in or out?

We bid all Delawareans a very, very safe weekend.  There’s enough foolishness and folly in politics so you needn’t follow suit in such conditions… please.

SCENE: THE ANTONIAN

DAY  :  WEDNESDAY, FEB 3

SUBJECT: CHATTER OVER DARTS

The day was about darts; literally and figuratively.  The day had an air of gamesmanship that came replete with sport and the obligatory biscotti and anisette spread; and amongst the interesting chatter the following was overheard.

John Carney has dodged a primary with Chris Coons.  Coons hates being county exec because no county exec has ever climbed to a higher office. Some CE’s have ended up in rehab; others in jail.

Former CE Dennis Greenhouse made the best transition of all when VP Joe secured him a cushy federal job – something to do with drugs.  Not using them per se, of course, but helping to prevent their spread or something like that.

The decision to primary against Beau was iffy, but when Baby Biden decided to appear interested in his own job rather then be drubbed by King Mike, a decision was made.  Coons has decided now to take the drubbing so he gets the “you owe me factor” from the D’s for future considerations, which is the concept of Dem, chairman John Daniello, who makes such decisions while holding court daily from his own seat at Harry’s Savoy.  The problem with the plan – and for Coons – is that should  he (Coons) lose badly; he’d be  viewed as radioactive.  GOP chairman Tom Ross has the same problem with one of his guys. Ross likes beer. Does anyone know what John D drinks?… We need to send them each a case of whatever it is.

This is turn means the national D money will go elsewhere leaving John Carney to ask his large family to pony up checks… Lots of checks.

This is also in turn means the GOP can get Tony Wedo to run.  Tony will use his own money – Charlie Copleland won’t –  and it will then be up to Wedo to beat Carney.

And in addition it means Colin Bonini will win big as the dems primary will leave the shelves empty for the winner come September.

This finally means that Tom Wagner will win because Richard Korn will raise a maximum of $40,000.  Tom will also investigate 5 more school districts for spending patterns that will earn him 10 more weeks of winter… er, I mean front page press coverage.

Mike Fleming announces soon to run against Mike Protack for County Council 3 and everyone will forget the ugly primary between Rich Abbott, John Clatworthy and Fleming to finally exorcise Protack from the party.

Finally, the GOP in Sussex has slated a 68 year old local boy to run for George Carey’s seat.  The D’s are running retired state archivist Russ McCabe. Flip a coin as to who wins.

Those are the darts and this is the Birdie’s Dartboard.  He/she will return next week as we like having our feathered friend getting’ us the skinny.

For anyone who’s ever played poker, whether it be in a friendly – or not so friendly – basement Friday night game, testing your Texas Hold ‘Em prowess at Poker At the Beach, or facing down Doyle Brunson and Phil Ivey in the World Series Of Poker at the Bellagio in Vegas, you know that you have to pony up the cash to play and show your cards when called.

What’s the callers point?

That politics mirror poker in many respects i.e. needing the green to play, holding your cards close, the art of the bluff, and when to challenge your opponent with a sizable bet to force his/her hand.  It’s all part of the game and the really good players know when to go all in.

So with that said we turn focus to  the Federal Election Commission’s (FEC) release of it’s latest filing of the campaign finance reports; analysis of the campaign war chests as it applies to Delaware’s  Candidates (players who have officially announced) for both the House and Senate seats.  Here we see precisely where the various contributions emanate and provide us a map as to where the players support lies and how it might – or will – mirror their respective legislative agendas.  It gives us an idea as to who the players really are, and because filing as a candidate requires a nominal $5000 as a buy in, it kinda exposes those pretenders who couldn’t even come up with the scratch to play the first hand.   If one announces – which a few pretenders have – and don’t appear in this report it states for the record that they couldn’t see the 5 G’s…  Now how the hell ya gonna give the race a whirl if ya even get 5 grand?  Fair question.  Some may still be in the “testing the waters” phase but those that have pulled the trigger and are actively campaigning are highlighted below:

Senate Race

Mike Castle has raised a total of $1,337,001 and spent a total of $500,729, leaving him with a cash on hand total of $1,699,015. Mike has 50/50 split in PAC contributions vs individual contributions. Some top contributors include the law firm of Young Conway Stargatt & Taylor ($22K), BoA, E&Y, Deloitte, NY Life, PwC ($10K each). Finance, Insurance and Real Estate industries were most widely represented in Mike’s total reporting with the total contributions at $234K. PACs represented around $426K in total contributions.

Christine O’Donnell on the other hand has (surprise, surprise) missed the deadline yet again to file her report. Without going into the details and simply referring you to Judson Bennett’s latest tirade into the utter disorganization of her campaign (and personal life), we will simply say that she’s not sitting pretty, however her most recent filing from almost one year ago had $123K raised and $120K spent.

House Race

On over the US House race… John Carney is the only one to have a formal announcement and anything notable in the bank.  JC has raised a total of $714,897 and spent $183,569, leaving him with a cash on hand total of $531,327 as of December 31st. PAC contributions for John represent 26% of money raised leaving 73% representing the individual donors. Like King Castle, a top donor is the law firm of Young Conaway with $12K in the hole among the unions – pipefitters, plumbers, longshoremen, electrical workers, laborers, machinists, sheet metal, teamsters, etc.

A blip on the radar screen is Republican Fred Cullis, who loaned himself the $5100 filing fee but hasn’t raised any money as of the end of the year.

Our Analysis

What the most recent reporting illustrates is the disparity between the haves and have not’s – not necessarily a good thang – and that it requires gobs of booty to not only play the game but win it as well.   Castle has scared off most of the competition with a can’t miss tag and Grand Canyon pockets.  Miss Tetley  has raised some for certain but lacks the capacity to truly increase her war chest or her paltry mob appeal.  But we, like most every informed – or even uninformed – constituent are gonna beat Fox News to the punch and call the race for King Michael.   We know he hates to read that, but the facts are the facts, Mike.

Now the race for the House is another boiling kettle of fish entirely.  There blows the wind of an uber expensive and heated primary  – Wedo will match Copeland buck for buck and then some and threaten party unity – in what could be the most expensive and heated primary in our state’s history.  And that might just be the precursor to the most expensive – and heated –  general election for the House in the First State’s history,  so whoever emerges from the September war will have to refill their tank – and in a hurry – to compete with the well funded and popular front running Carney.  My, how money talks and it can be a rather loquacious and powerful ally.

If you wanna play, ya gotta pay the band.

A race – any race – isn’t always about the money… but it helps… BIG TIME.

Our resident political prophet (she prefers clairvoyant) Madam LeRue has gotten a big head due to her performance numbers and now wants her own column.  Who are we to deny such a lovely and talented lady.  We did warn her that with such celebrity comes a degree of pressure.  She didn’t blink an all seeing eye.  So we asked her what she saw in her Crystal ball this afternoon.  “Where have you been, gentlemen?” …We haven’t used Crystal balls in years”, she chided.  OK, so we’re a bit behind the times, so we just got out of her way and told her to chant… or levitate… or whatever the hell she does.  So we watched as our muse suddenly became transfixed; summoned her powers and with an air of rapture, fixed her steely eyes and began to speak in calm but sure intonations…

Elephants …I see many elephants.   And red too.  Not a state colour but the colour of battle.  And I see blue.  A state colour to be certain, but also one of a somber mood as those amassed on the left look for ways to match coffer with coffer as the winds of challenge begin to swirl.

There seem to be a pair of siblings on the right… Brooks Brothers …both possessing a key to a Kentucky fort.  One brother, Charles, of old guard will proclaim his intent by mid week.  A question burns: will his brother, Anthony, match his fire and with sharpened nerve enter the fray?  Enter he will for he too covets the prize.  A civil war pitting brother against brother will be waged – and soon – to determine who will face the dems chosen one in the month of the scorpion.  This civil crusade will be fierce as other family members join the action.  These later entries will disappear as quickly as they appeared leaving the brothers locked in mono et mono contention.

Charles had balanced on the fence’s post in apprehension.  There was uncertainty as he has his eyes on another title…a governorship, perhaps.  A defeat here would be crippling.  He is not a real soldier, but is nonetheless formidable.  As is Anthony, who is a soldier and a rebel.  I see many in the party crying for change; the old guard be damned.

There lies a King who rules with a quiet core.  He is Michael.   He today has given audience to Charles and afforded him his blessing.  Charles brings with him great riches and is intent on keeping Anthony from using his own fortune against him.  Charles, though, has garnered the Kings favour.  But all is not quiet in the house of Castle.  The proletariat does not side with the King, preferring rather to choose their own.  This will create much angst from within.  Seams will stretch but not burst as the fight between the king’s horse and the Mustang ensues.  A great fight; a fierce fight, will capture the fancy and imagination on both shores.  There of course will remain but one; the other will ride the pale pony.  The loser will surface again.

The prince from the left has called his troops in anticipation.  There will be bounty from within and from afar.  The prince requires much regardless of which brother he is to face.  There is concern but no panic.  He is very confident.

This race will be taxing.  The race is on.

Madam LeRue